The photovoltaic industry is on the verge of a complete collapse of Chinese companies to save themselves

[Source: "High-tech new industry" November issue Cao Mo]

At a time when China's PV industry is on the verge of complete collapse, the relevant national authorities are finally ready to take action. ,

In mid-October, an expert from the National Development and Reform Commission's Renewable Energy Development Center told the New Industry that the National Energy Administration is studying the subsidy policy for distributed photovoltaic power generation. At present, it has been determined that the investment subsidy will be changed to the electricity subsidy, but the specific subsidy amount has not yet been determined. determine.

A domestic media quoted two industry experts as saying that the distributed photovoltaic power generation policy is being developed, and the subsidy amount may be 0.4-0.6 yuan per kWh.

Liu Wei, founder of Solar Zoom, the photovoltaic industry research center, told the "New Industry" that if the Chinese government can start the photovoltaic distributed generation market within 3-6 months, it may save a large number of domestic PV companies. "China's PV industry exports 80% will return to China."

"Distributed power generation may be the 'life-saving straw' of China's photovoltaic industry." An analyst at Zheshang Securities said.

In mid-October, the United States ruled on China's photovoltaic “double-reverse” and ruled that it would impose high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on photovoltaic products produced in China. At the same time, as China's largest and most important photovoltaic battery export market, the EU has also begun to follow the example of the United States, conducting a "double-reverse" investigation of Chinese PV products.

Market crisis

From the first quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the prices of various products in the global PV industry chain have dropped by 10%-15% every quarter. Recently, due to the decline in installed capacity of foreign PV power plants and the slowdown in domestic demand growth, prices are still in a downward trend, and polysilicon prices have fallen below US$18/kg. In 2008, polysilicon prices climbed to a maximum of $300/kg.

In order to withstand the harsh winter of the industry, photovoltaic companies in trouble have to deal with layoffs, pay cuts and other means. Among them, Suntech's active contraction of production capacity, Trina Solar can reduce shipment expectations in order to save costs, LDK LDK sells its property back to the funds.

These measures still can not solve the dilemma of the photovoltaic industry, and even more bad news soon came.

According to a person from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, the final result is not only valid for the 75 PV companies announced by the US Department of Commerce, but also for all Chinese PV companies.

"The United States 'double anti-dust' settled, the final ruling result is not much different from the initial ruling." Liu Yuanrui, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, believes that from the final result, the applicable tax rate of Trina Solar is 23.75%, and the applicable tax rate of Suntech Power 35.97%, some of China's key individual tax rate companies, including Yingli and Artes, are subject to an average tax rate of 30.66%, and the applicable tax rate for other companies is over 250%.

"The double-anti-merger tax rate is basically more than 30%. Once the formal implementation will make the domestic PV battery price advantage no longer exist, domestic enterprises will directly affect the US exports." Liu Yuanrui said.

However, Liu Yuanrui believes that the US market accounts for a small proportion of Chinese enterprises' exports, and the risk of “double-reverse” is still controllable. In 2011, China's photovoltaic cell exports were about 28 billion US dollars, and exports to the US exceeded US$3.1 billion, a relatively small proportion. Therefore, the direct risks of the US “double-reverse” to domestic PV companies are still in a controllable range.

So this is not the worst news.

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