The large market environment determines the trend of the entire LED industry to return to rational competition. Whether it is upstream, midstream or downstream, the vicious competition in the market for several consecutive years has indeed made many enterprises seek survival and turn for the better.
However, the price increase is a double-edged sword. If you succeed, you will be happy. If you fail, you will further squeeze the survival space of SMEs in a "suicide" way.
How long will this round of price increase last?
Dr. Xie Zhiguo, Deputy Director of Guoxing Optoelectronics R&D Center
I think that it is not so much the price increase as to return the price to a reasonable level.
Some time ago, the price war without bottom line severely reduced the reasonable profit of packaged devices. In addition, the price of precious metals and chips continued to rise in recent months, which greatly increased the cost of packaged devices. The market price of packaged devices is very close to cost. "Price hikes" are the general trend.
Wang Gaiyang, Vice President of Marketing, Hongli Zhihui
This year's chip price increase is due to the return of cost to rationality; on the other hand, because of the relationship between supply and demand. In the first half of the year, some chip manufacturers were forced to withdraw from the LED stage, and some chip manufacturers have been contracted by packaging companies like Mulinsen. Therefore, changes in supply and demand are also important factors affecting chip price increases.
The price increase of packaging is mainly reflected in the display field, especially in the small-pitch market. The white light lighting package did not appear to increase prices, but the price is returning to rationality, and will not continue to cut prices. It is expected that the price increase will last at least a year or so.
Wang Mengyuan, general manager of Zhonghao Photoelectric
The price increase of packaged products is now a reasonable trend. There are two main reasons for the price increase. One is because of the rising cost of materials and other comprehensive costs. On the other hand, for some price-sensitive markets, excessive low-price competition and subsidized market behavior have gradually returned to rationality.
As for how long this situation lasts, it is hard to say that although technological breakthroughs can bring about cost reduction, the market is ultimately the dominant factor. The decision may be in the terminal application market. However, it is normal for a mature product to fluctuate at a price of around 10% with the price balance curve.
Song Dong, Vice President of Jingke Electronics
The price increase of this package is not very volatile for white light illumination. The price increase of package is mainly for low-power illumination of RGB, while Jingke Electronics mainly makes high-power illumination. For us, not cutting prices is "price increase."
The price increase of this package is also a market development law and is not expected to last for too long.
Yin Xiaopeng, deputy general manager of Liyang Optoelectronics
This year's package price increase is not the first time. The fundamental reason is that the price of packaged raw materials (upstream chips) is rising, and the rise in chip prices is also a different stage of market adjustment.
For the packaging factory, especially the packaging manufacturers that do not have chip production capacity, there is no right to increase the price. Of course, the price increase of the chip is not unlimited. It is not so much the price increase. It should actually be the return of the market. This situation will not last long.
In fact, after the market competition in the first half of the year, the LED packaging industry is gradually returning to rationality. At the same time, the polarization of the LED packaging industry has gradually emerged.
“Being bigger and stronger†has clearly become the unanimous goal of many LED companies. Wang Mengyuan said, “The polarization will continue to exist in the next few years and will intensify.â€
Therefore, many companies have begun to adjust their strategic layout and have turned to high-end markets and LED market segments.
1. At what stage is the domestic packaging industry at present? Compared with last year, what are the obvious trends this year?
Xie Zhiguo:
After the previous round of industry reshuffle, the current packaging industry is in the “polarization†stage we often say, most obviously reflected in the elimination or merger of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the large-scale packaging enterprises dominated by the national star to further grasp the market. Dominance.
Compared with last year, the most obvious trend is that the market gradually returns from “crazy†to “rationalâ€, and the degree of attention gradually returns from price to technology, quality and other products. This shows that the industry order is gradually becoming orderly and healthy. Conducive to the progress of domestic packaging technology and the development of the industry.
Wang Gaoyang:
Nowadays, the packaging industry is basically in a relatively mature period. Various companies have formed a certain tacit understanding with the industry reshuffle. Especially after looking for chip price increases, some companies are looking for new ways to exit the market.
In addition, although the market is becoming more rational, the downstream is still facing greater pressure. For example, the rise of emerging markets, the penetration rate in some areas is large enough, so everyone is in the fight.
Wang Mengyuan:
The packaging industry has experienced a process from barbaric growth to standardization, scale to standardization. Nowadays, packaged products are diversified and more need innovation drive, which should be the stage of innovation drive.
Compared with last year, the packaging industry has seen an increase in costs and a slowdown in growth. Technically, the LED package will mainly develop toward the integration and miniaturization of high power density, high light efficiency and high color gamut index.
Song Dong:
At present, the domestic packaging market has reached a stable period, and many small and medium-sized enterprises have been eliminated, and the pattern of the larger Evergrande has gradually emerged. Several large companies that have survived have stable customer sources and mature technologies. In the future, there is little possibility of significant price cuts.
Compared with last year, this year's customers are very rational, and the quality requirements are more and more, instead of blindly pursuing prices. Stable quality has a positive impact on business development and is more attractive to customers.
Yin Xiaopeng:
The competition for packaging is similar to the competition in the chip market. The competition for the fight has entered a late stage. In the next two years, the integration and reshuffle of the packaging industry will continue to accelerate.
Flip-chip as a segment of the packaging market, in recent years, many companies have accelerated the layout progress, and the proportion of production capacity has also been greatly improved. At the same time, market acceptance has also tended to increase rapidly.
2. What is the stage of flipping the next market trend?
Xie Zhiguo:
At present, the flip-chip market is in the preliminary research test stage, and has begun to be used in batches in some market segments, such as: flip-chip COB, flash, CSP backlight, etc. Nowadays, the total demand cannot be compared with the formal wear, the market share is more Small. However, semiconductor chips continue to develop toward high current density, and flip-chip technology greatly increases the current density that the chip can carry. Moreover, from the chip level to the package level, flip-chip is the ideal path to reduce costs.
Wang Gaoyang:
Flip-flops have evolved to a relatively mature stage, mainly for TV backlighting and automotive lighting. In addition, there is a part for general lighting, mainly low-cost, lighting applications that do not require lumens, and the current production is not too much.
Hongli Zhihui's flip-chip products are used on TV sets, and customer feedback is good.
Wang Mengyuan:
As far as the current situation is concerned, flip-chip COB will indeed become the next market trend. The biggest problem with flip-chip COB is that there is still a certain gap between the brightness and the cost advantage and the formal COB. However, with the continuous improvement of the chip and flip-chip packaging technology, the brightness and the formal COB are even more than just a matter of time. Moreover, the high-stability and high-power density characteristics of the inverted gold-filled COB are superior to the ultra-thin miniaturization and ultra-high power applications in that it is difficult to implement COB. The acceptance of customers in the flip-chip market is gradually increasing, and it should be the stage of gaining momentum.
Song Dong:
At present, the application range of flip-chip mounting on high-power special lighting is relatively wide, and it exerts its unique superiority. For example, flash phones for mobile phones, daytime running lights for cars, and TV backlights. However, in the application of low power, there is no wide range of applications.
Yin Xiaopeng:
Flip-flops have been upgraded from the initial small batch production to the current mass production, and everyone's understanding of flip-chip has increased to a new level. At present, customers are more willing to use flip-chips, and their awareness of flip-chip and chips continues to increase, achieving capacity matching.
3. At present, what is the proportion of flip-chip products in the company's packaging business revenue?
Xie Zhiguo:
We are very optimistic about the development of LED flip-chip technology. Some of the flip-chip products are currently being developed, and some are already in the market. At present, the national star flip products account for a small share of the company's total market, and it is estimated that the market share will increase in the future.
Wang Gaoyang:
With the maturity of flip-chip technology, Hongli Zhihui flip-chip products accounted for about 3% of the company's packaging business.
Wang Mengyuan:
At present, the share of China's flip-chip products accounts for about 20% of the total revenue of the company's packaged products, and it is expected to grow to about 40% next year.
Song Dong:
At present, the share of flip-chip products accounts for about 30% of the overall business of Jinko Electronics.
Yin Xiaopeng:
In the first half of the year, the shares of the company's flip-chip products accounted for 40% - 50% of the company's total revenue. It is expected that this proportion will accelerate growth next year.
4. The competition in the flip-chip market will become bigger and bigger. How do companies conduct market layout and planning?
Xie Zhiguo:
In the field of flip-chips, we already have our own market plans. In the next step, CSP backlight and mobile phone flash are the key layout areas of the company. At present, production line equipment has been added to prepare for the advance. When scale effect and technology maturity are met, National Star will apply flip-chip technology to the general lighting market, especially for light source applications.
Wang Gaoyang:
Next, Hongli Zhihui will focus on two markets. First, the backlight part, because our flip-chip products are used earlier in the car, flip-chip has become the main product, at the same time, the flip-chip CSP technology will also be laid on the TV; second, the general lighting part, the future may Try in medium and high power light sources, such as bulbs. Although the cost is relatively high, it is more stable than the formal wear, and the ability to resist external forces exceeds the formal wear, so the future will be a trend.
Wang Mengyuan:
Next, Zhonghao Optoelectronics will focus on lighting and outdoor lighting in the field of flip-chip.
Song Dong:
Next, we mainly layout in three directions. The first is the field of lighting, which will cooperate with international first-tier manufacturers (Philips, Samsung, LG, etc.); the second is the backlight field, with high color gamut (for TV backlight); the third is automotive lighting, the pursuit of high Stability, application environment is too harsh, high temperature, high heat, high cold and other factors.
Yin Xiaopeng:
At present, the flip-chip products of Liyang are mainly used in the field of high-power integration and outdoor lighting. Next, the company will increase the market layout in the field of high-power integration.
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